You have to analyze each of the contestants and see where the votes will go after their favorite gets eliminated. It doesn’t go to the favorite because if they were your favorite you would have voted for them in the first place. So you have to think about who will pick up votes as they whittle down the field.
Casey has the good time rocker vibe that doesn’t translate to the tweens and their moms. I mean the Allman Brothers and Led Zep and Aerosmith are grandma’s bands. (Right professor). So he is not going to pick up a lot of votes from the other blocks. Especially anybody younger than 25 or so. But that’s all right. He can just party like its 1979.
Aaron got the fawn in the headlights look but is not enough of a girl/man like previous runner ups like David Archuleta to get the teenage girl who wants a boyfriend just like him votes. They want a boy who is pretty but won’t want to pressure them into sex. The spiritual sons or more likely the grandsons of Bobby Sherman. Or to be in this century, one of the Brothers Jonas. Aaron’s peeps are limited to his family and elves. Which are actually the same people. But I bet they have great cookies.
Lee is a poor imitation of Bruce Springsteen who sings every song the same way. Traffic jam in the Tunnel of Love dude. The judges are praising him to the skies because they want him to come along just far enough to lose in the finale. Like Blake the Boom Box dude from a prior season. The only guy who worked in a paint store who ever did anything in music was Tony Manero. I knew Tony Manero. I went to same clubs as Tony Manero. I had a white suit like Tony Manero. Lee, you sir are no Tony Manero.
Crystal in a fine singer in the Tracey Chapmen mode. But I think she is too Lillith Fair to appeal to a mass audience. Or to pick up other people’s votes as we go along in the contest. If you aren’t voting for her now you are not going to do it later. A lot like Melinda Doolittle was in a prior season. The only people who really love her are New Orleans Saints fans and unemployed dentists.
Big Mike is a big chocolate pudding pop of a dude. But you see America already voted in a bland black guy with a seemingly pleasant persona. They ain’t gonna make that mistake again. Just sayn’
Finally there is Siobhan. She is a gawky awkward young girl who a lot of people think is kinda weird. But she has a lot of talent hidden under a shy shell and a pair of ugly glasses. So who votes the most for American Idol? Gawky awkward early teenage and tweener girls who think that everyone thinks that they are weird. And their Moms. Siobhan is one of them. Plus she can really sing. And she is not the favorite. So a vote for her is defying Dad (Simon) and helping a girl just like them win. It’s a natural.
Wait and see.
Casey has the good time rocker vibe that doesn’t translate to the tweens and their moms. I mean the Allman Brothers and Led Zep and Aerosmith are grandma’s bands. (Right professor). So he is not going to pick up a lot of votes from the other blocks. Especially anybody younger than 25 or so. But that’s all right. He can just party like its 1979.
Aaron got the fawn in the headlights look but is not enough of a girl/man like previous runner ups like David Archuleta to get the teenage girl who wants a boyfriend just like him votes. They want a boy who is pretty but won’t want to pressure them into sex. The spiritual sons or more likely the grandsons of Bobby Sherman. Or to be in this century, one of the Brothers Jonas. Aaron’s peeps are limited to his family and elves. Which are actually the same people. But I bet they have great cookies.
Lee is a poor imitation of Bruce Springsteen who sings every song the same way. Traffic jam in the Tunnel of Love dude. The judges are praising him to the skies because they want him to come along just far enough to lose in the finale. Like Blake the Boom Box dude from a prior season. The only guy who worked in a paint store who ever did anything in music was Tony Manero. I knew Tony Manero. I went to same clubs as Tony Manero. I had a white suit like Tony Manero. Lee, you sir are no Tony Manero.
Crystal in a fine singer in the Tracey Chapmen mode. But I think she is too Lillith Fair to appeal to a mass audience. Or to pick up other people’s votes as we go along in the contest. If you aren’t voting for her now you are not going to do it later. A lot like Melinda Doolittle was in a prior season. The only people who really love her are New Orleans Saints fans and unemployed dentists.
Big Mike is a big chocolate pudding pop of a dude. But you see America already voted in a bland black guy with a seemingly pleasant persona. They ain’t gonna make that mistake again. Just sayn’
Finally there is Siobhan. She is a gawky awkward young girl who a lot of people think is kinda weird. But she has a lot of talent hidden under a shy shell and a pair of ugly glasses. So who votes the most for American Idol? Gawky awkward early teenage and tweener girls who think that everyone thinks that they are weird. And their Moms. Siobhan is one of them. Plus she can really sing. And she is not the favorite. So a vote for her is defying Dad (Simon) and helping a girl just like them win. It’s a natural.
Wait and see.
10 comments:
Good analysis, Troop. I agree that neither Crystal nor Big Mike will win but I'll have to re-think my prediction about Lee being the vote-consolidator. Kooky girls may be the popular thing now rather than rocker wannabes.
I just think that all the tweeners are going to see themselves in Sioban and that is going to put her over the top.
Lee is like the creepy older brother of their best friend who stares at their ass and makes them uncomfortable and they don't know why.
Of course when they get to be 15 they ride on his motorcycle and smoke a joint and get knocked up.
But then they aren't voting for American Idol anymore.
I agree that it's the tweeners who're voting and that this may be the first time they've had a chance to vote for someone more like themselves than other seasons. But these are the same tweeners who've voted for Taylor Hicks over Katherine McPhee, Ruben Studdard over Clay Aiken, Fantasia Barrino over Diana DeGarmo.
In short, they're all over the flippin' place.
Still, I'll stick with my prediction that they'll go with Lee. (Though I hadn't thought of him as creepy. Yet. Guess I'd better keep a closer eye on him.)
Is this about American Idol? I saw it for the first time last night and I couldn't get past that Bryan or Ryan Seacrest dude. Two minutes and I had to hit the clicker. How do you stand that super slickness?
Hey you have to tape it and fast forward throught that part.
Can't agree with you, Troop. It's going to be between Lee and Crystal, with Crystal winning.
Sioban has goofy teeth, and that never wins.
Ahem. Toodle-loo Sioban.
On the other hand, what the fuck do I know.
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